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首頁(yè)> 外文OA文獻(xiàn) >Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD
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Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD

機(jī)譯：針對(duì)公元4000年以前的常規(guī)CO2排放情景模擬了氣候，海洋環(huán)流，生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和生物地球化學(xué)循環(huán)的未來(lái)變化

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A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to ~1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ~10°C, sea ice melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO2. This represents a new positive feedback mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle on a multicentennial to millennial timescale. Changes in ocean biology become important for the ocean carbon uptake after year 2600, and at year 4000 they account for 320 ppmv or 22% of the atmospheric CO2 increase since the preindustrial era.
機(jī)譯：提出并評(píng)估了一種全球氣候，海洋環(huán)流，生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和生物地球化學(xué)循環(huán)的新模型，包括完全耦合的碳循環(huán)。該模型與過(guò)去50年來(lái)的多個(gè)觀(guān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)集以及過(guò)去150年來(lái)觀(guān)測(cè)到的全球地面空氣和海洋溫度的變暖相一致。在人為產(chǎn)生的CO2排放情況如常的情況下（到2100年之前為SRES A2，到2300年之后線(xiàn)性降低為零，相當(dāng)于5100 GtC的總排放量）后，將其應(yīng)用于未來(lái)兩千年的模擬。在2300年左右，大氣中的CO2增加到超過(guò)2000 ppmv的峰值（這是排放量的72％的空氣傳播比例），然后在4000年逐漸下降到?1700 ppmv（空氣傳播的比例為56％）。在4000年，百分之四十四的額外大氣CO2歸因于積極的碳循環(huán)-氣候反饋。全球地表空氣升溫約10°C，海冰融化回當(dāng)前面積的10％，深海海洋的循環(huán)崩潰。地下氧氣濃度下降，使亞含氧水的體積增加了三倍，使整體水柱的反硝化作用增加了三倍。我們估計(jì)由于其海洋產(chǎn)量增加一倍，大氣中N2O濃度增加60 ppb，導(dǎo)致弱的正反饋，并在4000年造成約0.24°C的變暖。到4000年，全球海洋初級(jí)產(chǎn)量幾乎翻了一番。高緯度地區(qū)浮游生物量增加在亞熱帶，而在中緯度和熱帶地區(qū)則下降。在我們的模型中，這沒(méi)有考慮酸化對(duì)海洋生物學(xué)的直接影響，在表層海洋中碳酸鈣的產(chǎn)量增加了一倍，進(jìn)一步增加了表層海洋和大氣中的pCO2。這代表了一種新的積極反饋機(jī)制，并導(dǎo)致氣候變化與碳循環(huán)之間在多世紀(jì)至千年的時(shí)間尺度上的積極相互作用得到加強(qiáng)。海洋生物學(xué)的變化對(duì)于2600年以后的海洋碳吸收變得很重要，到4000年，它們占320 ppmv或自工業(yè)化前時(shí)代以來(lái)大氣CO2增長(zhǎng)的22％。

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